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‘Options’ Thinking — 3 Comments

    • Hey Guy,

      well I looke at it and at first thought: Wow, that is AWESOME.

      in fact this is what I wrote to you in response:

      Wow, that is AWESOME.

      You’ve got me thinking now…

      I love it.

      love it love it love it.

      BUT BUT BUT BUT BUT BUT BUT…

      after a couple of minutes thinking about it, I don’t agree with the statement in the wiki: a player who picks door 1 and doesn’t switch has a 1 in 3 chance of winning the car while a player who picks door 1 and does switch has a 2 in 3 chance, because the host has removed an incorrect option from the unchosen doors, so contestants who switch double their chances of winning the car.

      the point seems to be that initially the probability was 1 in 3 and that stat is kept if the contestant sticks with their choice (door 1) & the new probability is 1 in 2 if the contestant changes their choice.

      I would argue that the choice to stick with door 1 is made with new information and also has a 1 in 2 chance the 3rd door having been eliminated so it’s at that point it’s a 50/50 chance whatever door is picked.

      voila, years of pointless debate solved šŸ˜‰

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